应用主成分分析法对疏勒河流域水资源承载力进行评价，结果表明，影响该区域水资源承载力的3个主成分为反映经济发展和人口状况的主成分F1、反映节水技术状况的主成分F2、反映降水量状况的主成分F3。从主成分的变化趋势可以看出，2003 — 2010年疏勒河流域水资源承载力整体呈稳步递增趋势，但在2008年和2009年出现了小的波动，其原因主要是2008年、2009年两个年份降水量减小。要促进疏勒河流域水资源可持续利用，应控制该区域人口数量，大力推广节水灌溉技术，普及和提高群众的节水意识。

Through using principal component analysis， this paper obtained three principal components， which affected water resource carrying capacity in the Shule river basin. Firstly， reflecting the development of economy and status of population. Secondly， reflecting the water-saving technology status. Tirdly， reflecting the rainfall status. The result shows that the water resource carrying capacity stayed steady increasing trend in the Shule River Basin in 2003 — 2010， but there was a little fluctuation because of decreasing of the rainfall in 2008 and 2009. At last， this paper puts forward some proposals on sustainable utilization in this basin，such as controlling the population， promoting water-saving technology， popularizing people's consciousness of saving water.

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