[关键词]
[摘要]
采用昌吉市一般气候站1970 — 2019年逐月浅层地温观测资料,利用气候倾向率、累积距平、回归分析等统计方法,对昌吉市近50 年春播期(4 — 5月)浅层地温的变化特征、趋势及突变年份进行分析。结果表明,近50 年昌吉市春播期气温呈明显升高趋势,0~20 cm各土层地温的变化趋势不显著。在年代际变化上,平均气温和0 cm土层地温呈现出先升后降的特征,1970 — 2009年为上升趋势,2010年以来呈下降趋势。5、10、15、20 cm土层地温均呈先降后升再降的特征,1979 — 1989年呈下降趋势,1990 — 2009年呈上升趋势,2010年以来呈现下降趋势。从春播期平均气温和各层地温的每10 年平均对比分析看,气温和各层地温在2000 — 2009年平均值均出现了最大值,表明2000 — 2009年为近50 年中气温和地温最高的10年。通过累积距平法可知,昌吉市近50 年春播期平均气温在1996年出现了明显转折,之前累积曲线基本上呈下降趋势,气温以负距平为主;之后累积曲线呈明显上升趋势,气温以正距平为主。0 cm土层平均地温在1990、2008年出现了明显转折。1990年之前累积曲线呈明显下降趋势,地温以负距平为主;1991 — 2008年累积曲线呈明显上升趋势,地温以正距平为主。2008年之后累积曲线呈下降趋势,地温以负距平为主;5、10、15、20 cm土层地温累积距平曲线趋势较为一致,均在1996年和2008年出现了突变。
[Key word]
[Abstract]
In this paper, monthly shallow ground temperature observation data from the general climate station of Changji City from 1970 to 2019 were used to analyze the variation characteristics, trends and abrupt changes of shallow ground temperature in the sowing time(from April to May) of 50 years in Changji City by using statistical methods such as climatic tendency rate, cumulative anomaly and regression analysis.The results showed that the sowing time temperature in Changji City of 50 years presented a significant increase trend, while the change trend of the ground temperature in each shallow layer 0~20 cm was not significant.In terms of the interdecadal variation, the average temperature and the ground temperature of 0 cm show the characteristics of rising first and falling later, the trend of which is rising from 1970 to 2009, and declining since 2010; The ground temperature at 5 cm, 10 cm, 15 cm and 20 cm all showed the characteristics of first decreasing, then increasing, then decreasing. The ground temperature showed a downward trend from 1970 to 1989, an upward trend from 1990 to 2009 and a downward trend since 2010. As can be seen from the comparison and analysis of the average temperature during sowing time and the average temperature of each layer in each decade, the 10-year average temperature and ground temperature of each layer in 2000 — 2009 both reached the maximum value, indicating that 2000 — 2009 was the decade with the highest temperature and ground temperature in nearly 50 years. According to the cumulative anomaly method, the average temperature in the sowing time of nearly 50 years in Changji City appeared an obvious turning point in 1996. Before that, the cumulative curve basically showed a downward trend, with the temperature mainly negative anomaly. After that, the cumulative curve showed an obvious upward trend, with the temperature mainly positive anomaly; The average ground temperature of 0 cm changed significantly in 1990 and 2008. Before 1990, the cumulative curve showed a significant downward trend, with the ground temperature dominated by negative anomaly. From 1991 to 2008, the cumulative curve showed a significant upward trend, with the ground temperature dominated by positive anomaly. After 2008, the cumulative curve showed a downward trend, and the ground temperature was mainly negative anomaly; The average ground temperature cumulative anomaly curves of 5 cm, 10 cm, 15 cm and 20 cm have the same trend, and all showed abrupt changes in 1996 and 2008.
[中图分类号]
S152
[基金项目]