为研究区域土地利用结构的动态变化，探究其发展规律和驱动机制，运用SPSS等软件对天水市麦积区2015 — 2020年土地利用变更数据进行处理，采用信息熵、单一土地动态度对麦积区土地利用结构及其动态变化特征进行了定量分析并对麦积区2021 — 2026的信息熵进行了预测。结果表明，麦积区土地利用类型时间变化具有不均衡性，但已呈现良好方向发展的趋势。从单一土地动态度来看，居民工矿用地、水利设施用地、交通设施用地均为正向变化，其中交通设施用地变化最为明显，水利设施变化幅度最小。其他用地类型均为负向变化，林地变化最小。依据2015 — 2017年信息熵、均衡度、优势度以及2021 — 2026年预测值分析，麦积区土地利用结构正在向均衡化的方向发展。

Based on the land use data of Maiji district from 2015 to 2020， using software such as Excel and Spss to handle the change data for 6 years， we made a quantitative analysis of the dynamic evolution of the land use structure by using the analyzing approaches such as the information entropy， single land dynamic degree and the GM(1，1) model of grey system theory， and made a prediction on information entropy of the Maiji district in Tianshui city from 2021 to 2026. The results demonstrated that the distribution of different land use types showed the trend of temporal unbalance， but it began to develop toward a good direction. From the perspective of single land dynamic degree， residential land， industrial and mining land， land used for water conservancy facilities， and land used for transportation facilities all had positive changes， in which the change of land used for transportation facilities was the most obvious， while the change of land used for water conservancy facilities was the least. Based on the analysis of information entropy， equilibrium degree and superiority degree from 2015 to 2017 and the predicted value from 2021 to 2026， the land use structure is moving towards equilibriumin Maiji district of Tianshui city.

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