通过探究金昌市气候变化背景下活动积温(≥10 ℃)对农作物生长的影响，因地制宜地安排作物布局、合理部署农业生产。选用金昌市金川区、永昌县1991 — 2020年30 a的观测数据，运用趋势分析法、M-K突变检验法、五日滑动平均法等气候统计诊断方法对金昌市≥10 ℃积温时空变化特征及玉米、春小麦的种植面积、产量进行分析。结果表明，气候变暖背景下，金昌市热量条件有较好的改善，对农作物产生了一定影响，喜温作物玉米的种植比例和产量显著增加，喜凉作物春小麦的种植比例减少。金昌市≥10 ℃积温、积温持续日数总体呈波动增加的趋势，但金川区≥10 ℃积温持续日数的增加主要由初日提前造成，永昌县由终日延后造成。金昌市≥10 ℃积温异常概率较小，偏高年均在积温突变之后，金川区积温突变发生在1996年，永昌县发生在1997年。金昌市≥10 ℃积温与海拔密切相关，海拔每升高100 m，≥10 ℃积温减少187.5 ℃·d、终日提早2.4 d、初日推迟2.4 d、持续日数延长5.1 d。

This study explored the impact of the ≥10 ℃ accumulated temperature values on crop growth under the background of climate change in Jinchang City, aiming to arrange crop layouts and plan agricultural production appropriately. Using 30 years of observational data(1991 to 2020) from Jinchuan District and Yongchang County, Jinchang City's, the study analyzed the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of ≥10 ℃ accumulated temperature and the planting area and yields of maize and spring wheat using climate statistical methods such as trend analysis, M-K mutation test, and five-day moving average. Results showed that under the background of cilmate warming, Jinchang's thermal conditions were improved significantly, affecting crops. The planting proportion and yield of warm-loving crops like maize were significantly increased, while the planting proportion of cool-loving crops like spring wheat were decreased. The ≥10 ℃ accumulated temperature and the number of days with accumulated temperature in Jinchang City showed an overall fluctuating increase. However, the increase in the number of days with accumulated temperature in Jinchuan District was mainly caused by an earlier start, while in Yongchang County, it was caused by a later end. The probability of abnormal ≥10 ℃ accumulated temperature in Jinchang City was relatively low, with higher-than-usual years occurring after a temperature mutation. The temperature mutation in Jinchuan District occurred in 1996, and in Yongchang County, it occurred in 1997. The ≥10 ℃ accumulated temperature in Jinchang City was closely related to altitude. For every 100 meters increase in altitude, the ≥10 ℃ accumulated temperature decreased by 187.5 ℃·d, the end day advanced by 2.4 days, the start day was delayed by 2.4 days, and the duration of the accumulated temperature increased by 5.1 days.

P468

金昌市一般社发类项目(2023SF006)。